economy

1. September 19, 2026News5 receipts3 min

   The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point on September 16, to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, by a unanimous vote. Its own projections put one more increase on the table before the year ends.

   The Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, 2026, voting 12 to 0. In July it had held the rate, with three members dissenting in favour of a hike. The statement's reason fits in three words, 'Inflation remains elevated', and it says the increase 'will support a timelier return' to the 2 percent goal. The Fed's projections raised its median inflation estimate for 2026 to 3.7 percent and its median year-end rate to 4.1 percent, up from 3.8 in June. Twelve of the 18 officials put the rate at 4.125 percent at the end of 2026, a quarter point above where it now sits. The next meeting is October 27 and 28. The Fed's documents say nothing about what this means for mortgages, credit cards or savings.

   Also filed underfederal-reserveinterest-ratesinflationfomc

2. September 17, 2026Commentary4 receipts4 min

   A fifth of the economy has no earnings record behind it. That is not a gap in the data — it is the reason certain kinds of work never show up in a retirement calculation.

   GAO priced unpaid household work at $5.6 to $6.0 trillion in 2024, about a fifth of GDP, done by 87.3 percent of people for an average of 3.72 hours a day. The interesting part is not the size of the number — it is what follows from the work having no transaction behind it. Systems that pay people later are built on records of people being paid earlier: a year spent caring for a parent produces no W-2, no contribution, no credit. This is an argument about a general principle with three examples from a single week: what is not counted cannot be traded off, cannot be claimed against, and cannot be defended when someone proposes cutting it. And the fix is never 'care more' — it is a category, a code, a line on a form.

   Also filed undermethodcaregivingmeasurementgao

3. September 17, 2026News2 receipts3 min

   GAO put a number on the cooking, cleaning and caring Americans do for free: at least $5.6 trillion in 2024, about a fifth of GDP, and none of it is in GDP.

   GAO's September 17 report estimates the national market value of unpaid household work — domestic tasks plus caregiving — at $5.6 to $6.0 trillion in 2024, 'equivalent to at least 19.2 to 20.2 percent of 2024 GDP'. Domestic tasks account for $4.3–4.4 trillion of that; caregiving for $1.1–1.4 trillion. On a typical day 87.3 percent of people did some of it, averaging about 3.72 hours. Women were 53.9 percent of the people doing it while being 51.2 percent of the population; women and married people spent more time on child care than men and unmarried people, while time spent caring for adults was similar across both splits. The estimate excludes secondary child care — watching a child while doing something else — so GAO says the real figure is higher. None of it appears in GDP, because GDP counts market transactions.

   Also filed undergaogdpcaregivingunpaid-workstatistics

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