The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15-16 meeting on October 7. They show all 12 voting members supported raising the target range for the federal funds rate a quarter percentage point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, effective September 17, with none against.
The vote
The minutes record: "Voting for this action: Kevin Warsh, John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lisa D. Cook, Beth M. Hammack, Philip N. Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, Lorie K. Logan, Anna Paulson, Jerome H. Powell, and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action: None." The postmeeting statement itself carries the line "by a 12–0 vote." In two further unanimous votes, the Board of Governors raised the rate paid on reserve balances to 3.90 percent and the primary credit rate to 4.0 percent, both effective September 17.
One vote, different reasons
In the minutes, "members" are the 12 who vote; "participants" is the wider group they summarize. They say "all members agreed to raise the target range" and that "all participants" viewed a higher range as appropriate — but they attach different reasoning to different-sized groups. "Many participants" called a higher path prudent "on risk-management grounds," as insurance against inflation staying above target. "A number of participants" instead viewed it as necessary based on their own most likely forecasts "rather than on risk-management grounds." "Several participants" said they viewed the current policy rate as "not restrictive or only mildly restrictive." "Almost all participants" judged inflation risks tilted to the upside while risks to the labor market had become "broadly balanced." Looking ahead, "most participants" assessed that another increase in the target range "would likely be appropriate by year end," though participants emphasized they "approached each meeting with an open mind."
What the staff told the committee
The staff estimated total personal-consumption-expenditures (PCE) inflation edged up to 3.8 percent in August, led by consumer energy prices, with core PCE inflation remaining at 3.4 percent. Both ran higher than a year earlier, which the staff attributed mostly to past tariff increases, higher energy and input costs tied to geopolitical developments, and AI-buildout-linked technology prices. Under a new Bureau of Economic Analysis method announced for the end of September, the staff put August's total inflation at 3.6 percent and core at 3.2 percent. The unemployment rate moved down to 4.1 percent in July and August. The staff's inflation forecast was somewhat higher for 2026 through 2028 than in July, its outlook for activity and the labor market stronger, with inflation reaching 2 percent in 2029. Risks to that forecast were "skewed to the upside."
What the minutes do not say
The minutes give no reason for any individual member's vote and record no vote against. Eighteen participants submitted projections "in conjunction with" this meeting; the figures are in the Summary of Economic Projections, which the minutes say was released to the public after the meeting ended. The Committee's next meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, 2026.